About Trump, the Democrats and the New Era of Politics: Seeing the Years to Come

Hello everyone! You may have noticed that it has been a while since My last newsletter. That’s because I’ve been on vacation for the past three months. And I’ll take a vacation for most of the next three – but I wanted to check in with some thoughts and programming notes.

As some of you asked: Yes, the leaning continues. When I get back to work, the newsletter will be backed up. Needless to say, there’s a lot to cover. This is not an ordinary moment in American political history.

So far, I have a few themes in my mind:

Public response to Trump’s second term

From the usual job approval investigations to deeper issues regarding enforcement, attitudes about President Trump will likely be the topic of this year.

That’s why my colleagues have already started collecting his votes Approval evaluation (Add a chart containing polling averages over the next few weeks).

Already, Trump has wasted his post-election honeymoon. His approval rate is below 50%, slightly more Americans disapprove than they approve of his performance. This puts his position more or less before the election.

There is good reason to think his assessment will continue to slip. One better rule of thumb in American politics is that public opinion tends to go against the direction of policy change. Some political scientists call this “the thermostat public opinion,” and the public raises the AC to cool things down when the government starts to heat up. Few presidents run governments as hot as Trump. There’s not much reason to think he’s going to turn down something himself.

Elections and the new era in 2024

The 2024 election may seem like old news, but it will resonate for years to come. I, like me, we have clearly entered a new era of politics Written in Decemberand there is no way to understand where things are heading without understanding the big changes over the past decade.

The following month or so, we will finally get some last few important data on the 2024 election. Most importantly, you have a comprehensive account of who voted based on your voter registration record. Also, there are most of the results due to the precincts (my colleagues have published it Detailed map of those results).

Along with Times/Siena Polling, it is enough to provide our best answers to big standout questions, including turnout, how demographic groups have changed, and why the votes underestimated Trump. From young men and Hispanic voters to the Tiktok effect and the new Silicon Valley rights, we will do our best to analyse the most surprising changes in the election.

Democrats

Mr Trump I didn’t win The 2024 election took place at a big margin, but despite this, Democrats suffered an extraordinary defeat.

After all, Trump was a felon who tried to defeat his previous election and was not a popular candidate. Exit Vote Found Only 46% had a favorable view compared to 53% who had an unfavorable view. To blunt: He thought the Democrats were even worse, so he won.

As we wrote, the implications Before the electionthat Democrats might have lost in a landslide in the face of a more typical Republican. With the exception of abortion and democracy (the Republican self-sign), Democrats essentially lost elections on all other issues inclusively. The Democrats have not faced such a challenge since 1980.

The debate about the future of the Democrats has already begun. There are some novel angles like call Ezra Klein for the politics of “richness” co-written by my colleagues on the opinion side. But most debates were another rehash of repeated debates between the party’s moderates and progressives. This time it is difficult to see how either side can claim to have the answer to the main issues facing the party.

Democrats also face more pressing challenges. How will you respond to Trump? He will probably do more to shape the Democratic future than himself.

This will be a big topic this year. The next democratic presidential primary campaign isn’t far enough to look like it is today. New York’s democratic mayoral competition is already there In progress.

The upcoming election calendar

This is ready for special elections, the November elections for governors of Virginia and New Jersey, and for next year.

I don’t know if this is the most suspenseful or two-year election. I’ve already seen enough in the first 8 years of my Trump era – First special election I am sure the Democrats will do very well in his current term. We’ve also seen enough to know that Democrats can do very well in these kinds of contests. Without necessarily translation A better chance in the presidential election.

We’ll go into this in Tuesday’s newsletter, timed with the Wisconsin Supreme Court Race And special Parliament election In Florida.

Bottom line: Democrats may face serious questions about their identity and message, but perhaps they won’t stop them from posting big wins in the coming years.