How Trump distrusts and drives away his allies

The F-35, a five-generation fighter, was developed in collaboration with eight countries. Models of international cooperation. When President Trump introduced his successor, the F-47, he praised its strengths, saying that the version sold to allies would be deliberately downgraded.

That makes sense, Trump said last week, “Because one day, they’re not our ally.”

In many countries married to the US, his statements confirmed relevant conclusions. That means America is no longer reliable. As Trump threatens the economy of its allies, their defense partnerships, and even sovereignty, we can see where things are heading, even in countries that are not yet directly affected.

For now, they are negotiating to minimize the pain caused by the blow after the blow, including the broad tariff expected in April. But at the same time, they are pulling back. To prepare for threats, they are trying to walk their own paths to become a lasting feature of American relations.

Some examples:

• Canada is $4.2 billion deal with Australia This month, it announced that it has developed cutting-edge radar and is in discussions. Please participate Military accumulation of the European Union.

• Portugal and other NATO countries are Rethinking the plan To buy the F-35, you fear American control over parts and software.

• Negotiations over free and technical trade between the European Union and India suddenly acceleration After years of delay.

• Brazil is not only increasing trade with China, but also doing so. Chinese currencywatching the dollar.

• In some countries, including Poland, South Korea and Australia, Build or ensure access to nuclear weapons For their own protection, it is now common.

Some distance from the US was already moving, as other countries were wealthy, more capable, and we weren’t convinced that America’s centrality was permanent. However, the past few months of Trump 2.0 have supercharged the process.

History and psychology can help explain why. According to social scientists studying international relations, there is little power to have a very strong and long-term impact on geopolitics like mistrust. He repeatedly poisoned negotiations in the Palestine-Israel conflict. It maintained Cold War tensions between the US and the Soviet Union for decades.

So-called realists who view international relations as an immoral contest between self-interested nations argue that trust should always be evaluated skeptical as it is dangerous to believe in goodwill.

But Trump has raised more than cautious doubt. His own disbelief of the allies clearly visible within him Zerosum’s beliefs The profits for others are American losses, and they are coming back and forth. What it was created is familiar – the spiral of mistrust. If you think other people (or countries) can’t trust you are likely to break rules and contracts without embarrassment, Research showsstrengthens the distrust of the partner itself, leading to more aggression and reduced interaction.

“Trust is fragile,” wrote Paul Slovich, a psychologist at the University of Oregon. Research from 1993 About risk, trust, democracy. “It’s usually created quite slowly, but it can quickly be destroyed by one accident or mistake.”

In Trump’s case, allies point to a sustained attack.

His tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada surprised American neighbors, ignoring the North American free trade contracts he signed during his first term.

His threat to make Canada an American state and send US troops to Mexico after drug cartels destroy invasions on sovereignty, unlike his demands for Greenland and the Panama Canal. His responsibility for the war that Russia began to alienate even more of its alienated allies forces them to ask: is the United States dictator or advocate for democracy?

Relatively quickly, they decided that Trump’s most audacious proposals (such as turning Gaza into the Middle Eastern Riviera) were fantasies. The trend line is pointed in the same direction.

Perhaps no country has been more shocked than Canada. Despite the large military power and disparities, it shares the world’s largest, unprotected border with the United States. why? Because Canadians trust America. Most of the time isn’t.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Thursday that his country’s traditional ties with the United States are “end.”

“Trump violates deeper assumptions in Canada’s foreign policy that the United States is essentially a reliable country,” said Brian Rasbun, professor of Global Affairs at the University of Toronto. “It’s very threatened by Canada’s fundamental interests on trade and security, leading to casting it for an alternative.”

Economic patriotism is somewhat new to Canada, Buy Canada A move that encourages consumers to avoid American products and stocks. Canadians are also canceling a large number of US holidays.

In the long run, Trump’s threat has built a surprising consensus on policies that have been controversial or neglected. Canada needs to build pipelines, ports, ports and other infrastructure from north to south to reduce its dependence on the US and push resources outwards to Asia and Europe.

Europe is further ahead in this process. After the US election, the European Union Trade contract confirmed It has created one of the world’s largest trade spheres with South American countries and has worked towards close trade ties. India, South Africa, South Korea and Mexico.

Japan, America’s biggest ally in Asia, is also prioritized by new markets in the global southern region, where a rapidly growing economy like Vietnam offers new customers.

“There was a new realization in Japan that we definitely need to change our investment portfolio,” said Ken Jimbo of Tokyo, a professor of international politics and safety at Kio University in Tokyo. For the current administration and subsequent administrations, he added that “expectations for the American Alliance must be adjusted.”

Defensively, what is called “de-Americanization” is even more difficult. This is especially true in Asia where there is no NATO equivalent, with American reliance on aid inventing some of the military forces of the nations that the US has committed to defending (Japan, South Korea, the Philippines).

Friday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegses I was in Manilawe promise to “really prioritize and shift this region.” However, many of our American partners are currently working together without the US, signing mutual access agreements for each other’s forces and creating new coalitions to block China as much as possible.

So does Europe I’ve been away for years Because it can be completely defensive without the help of US weapons and technology. But in response to the Trump administration’s tariffs, threats and common negativity, the European Union recently announced plans to increase military spending, like the leaked signal chat that Hegses called Europe. It includes 150 billion euro loan A program that funds defence investments.

The 27-national European Union is also increasingly working with two non-members, the UK and Norway, on Ukraine’s defense and other strategic defense priorities.

In some countries, this is not enough. Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tass; He told Congress In early March, Poland will explore gaining access to nuclear weapons, fearing that Trump cannot trust him to fully protect his fellow NATO nations.

“This is a competition for security,” says Tass. I said.

In February, South Korea’s foreign minister Cho Yul told the National Assembly that the construction of nuclear weapons “is not on the table, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s off the table.” Some estimates show that both South Korea and Japan have the technical know-how to develop nuclear weapons within two months.

Former Singapore diplomat Birihari Kausikan said a bit of distrust could lead to healthy attention, noting that Asia has been skeptical of the United States since the Vietnam War. He said the final result of the Trump era was “a more diverse world, with more maneuvering space” and could be a less dominant US.

But for now, distrust is widespread. Experts said that connecting America with new or old over the long term takes years and costly and trust-raising efforts.

“Crediting is difficult and easy to lose,” said Deborah Welch Larson, a political scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, who wrote a book about the role of the Mistrust in the Cold War. She added: “Daily mistrust of America’s intentions and motivations is growing.”

Report contributed Matina Stevis-Gridneff From Toronto, Jeanna Smialek From Brussels Cho San-han From Seoul Martin Fuckler From Tokyo.